{"id":435393,"date":"2023-08-23T13:17:32","date_gmt":"2023-08-23T17:17:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/?p=435393"},"modified":"2023-11-29T12:19:13","modified_gmt":"2023-11-29T17:19:13","slug":"how-a-uaw-strike-could-impact-auto-industry-car-buyers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/how-a-uaw-strike-could-impact-auto-industry-car-buyers\/","title":{"rendered":"How a UAW Strike Could Impact Auto Industry, Car Buyers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The auto industry may see its largest strike in years if the United Auto Workers (UAW) \u2013 the largest auto professional union in the country \u2013 does not reach an agreement with the \u201cDetroit Three\u201d automakers Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis by September 14. Union members are set to vote on whether or not to authorize a strike, with leaders asking local offices to report votes by August 24.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If authorized, a strike could have a significant direct financial impact on the automotive industry. Even a brief labor stoppage could also create a broad range of ripple-effect consequences for manufacturers, autoworkers, and car buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The UAW May Decide To Strike If an Agreement Isn\u2019t Reached<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The current agreement that covers nearly 150,000 UAW members employed by the Detroit Three is set to expire on September 14. In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/UAW-Press-Two-Pager-on-Big-3-Talks.pdf\">a press release<\/a>, the UAW suggested that the current agreement is imbalanced in favor of automakers and at the expense of autoworkers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn 2007-09, the Great Recession turned the auto industry upside down,\u201d said the release. \u201cTo save it, autoworkers took massive cuts to their wages and benefits. The companies introduced&nbsp; \u2018tiers,\u2019 worse pay for the same work. Pensions were eliminated. Post-retirement healthcare&nbsp; vanished for new hires. Jobs were cut. The companies got billions in taxpayer dollars, while autoworkers took deep cuts and made life-changing sacrifices to keep the industry alive.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Talks between the two sides have become increasingly tense as the September deadline draws near. Reuters and other outlets reported that UAW president Shawn Fain <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/autos-transportation\/uaw-says-chrysler-parent-stellantis-seeking-concessions-talks-2023-08-08\/\" rel=\"noopener\">threw a contract proposal<\/a> from Stellantis into a trash can in response to the company\u2019s proposed concessions for autoworkers. In a Facebook Live session, Fain denounced proposed cuts to healthcare for workers, vacation time, and employer 401(k) contributions, and criticized suggestions to lift limits on the number of temporary employees that can be employed by the company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cStellantis proposals are a slap in the face,&#8221; Fain said during the session. \u201cManagement has chosen to spit in our faces.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stellantis Chief Operating Officer Mark Stewart offered a different perspective. In a letter to employees, he said that the company was \u201ccommitted to working with the UAW to reach an agreement based on economic realism.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe theatrics and personal insults will not help us reach an agreement,\u201d wrote Stewart. \u201cNow is the time to come to the table with open minds and a commonsense approach. At this very early stage, no one should jump to any conclusions about the outcome of the process.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Autoworker Pay Hasn&#8217;t Kept Up With Profits, Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In its press release, the UAW points to several figures to illustrate reasons for new contract demands. These figures compare growth in auto industry profits and CEO pay to pay increases for workers.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe Big Three automakers have made a quarter of a trillion dollars in North American profits in the past decade,\u201d said the press release. \u201cCEO pay is up 40% in four years; autoworker wages are up 6% in that time. Inflation is up 18%.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Automoblog did not have access to specific data for the \u201cBig Three\u201d automakers, but according to <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.bea.gov\/iTable\/?reqid=19&amp;step=3&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey&amp;1903=239#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDMsM10sImRhdGEiOltbIk5JUEFfVGFibGVfTGlzdCIsIjIzOSJdLFsiQ2F0ZWdvcmllcyIsIlN1cnZleSJdLFsiRmlyc3RfWWVhciIsIjIwMDEiXSxbIkxhc3RfWWVhciIsIjIwMjMiXSxbIlNjYWxlIiwiLTkiXSxbIlNlcmllcyIsIlEiXV19\" rel=\"noopener\">data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)<\/a>, domestic manufacturers as a whole saw their highest profits in at least 22 years in Q4, 2022. In fact, the 29 most profitable quarters since 2001 have all come since 2010. Since Q1 2010, domestic auto manufacturers have combined to make $706.9 billion in profit.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"visualizer-front-container visualizer-lazy-render\" id=\"chart_wrapper_visualizer-435319-854802188\"><style type=\"text\/css\" name=\"visualizer-custom-css\" id=\"customcss-visualizer-435319\">.locker,.locker-loader{position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%}.locker{z-index:1000;opacity:.8;background-color:#fff;-ms-filter:\"progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Alpha(Opacity=80)\";filter:alpha(opacity=80)}.locker-loader{z-index:1001;background:url(https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/wp-content\/plugins\/visualizer\/images\/ajax-loader.gif) no-repeat center center}.dt-button{display:none!important}.visualizer-front-container.visualizer-lazy-render{content-visibility: auto;}.google-visualization-controls-categoryfilter label.google-visualization-controls-label {vertical-align: middle;}.google-visualization-controls-categoryfilter li.goog-inline-block {margin: 0 0.2em;}.google-visualization-controls-categoryfilter li {padding: 0 0.2em;}.visualizer-front-container .dataTables_scrollHeadInner{margin: 0 auto;}.visualizer-editor-front-container{position:relative;width:auto;margin:5%;background:#fff}.visualizer-editor-front{overflow:hidden;width:100%;height:500px}.visualizer-editor-front-actions{padding-bottom:3px}.visualizer-editor-save,.visualizer-editor-cancel{margin:0 4px;padding:2px 15px}.visualizer-cw-error .visualizer-actions{display:none !important;} <\/style><div id=\"visualizer-435319-854802188\" class=\"visualizer-front  visualizer-front-435319\"><\/div><!-- Not showing structured data for chart 435319 because license is empty --><\/div>\n\n\n<p>But as profits have swelled, the average American autoworker wages have failed to keep up with cost-of-living increases. Between Q1 2010 and Q1 2023, the average hourly pay rate for all domestic autoworkers <a href=\"https:\/\/data.bls.gov\/pdq\/SurveyOutputServlet\" rel=\"noopener\">has increased 32%<\/a>. Over that same period, the cost-of-living consumer price index (CPI) has <a href=\"https:\/\/beta.bls.gov\/dataViewer\/view\/timeseries\/CUUR0000SA0\" rel=\"noopener\">increased by 38%<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The UAW Has Presented a List of Demands<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Cost-of-living wage increases are one subject of UAW demands, but there are several other issues central to the union\u2019s proposal. Early in August, Fain made the uncommon move of creating the list of union demands public. Among <a href=\"https:\/\/jacobin.com\/2023\/08\/uaw-strike-big-three-organizing-demands\" rel=\"noopener\">the most notable of these demands<\/a> were:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Eliminating tiers for wages and benefits<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Double-digit raises for all union workers<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ending the suspension of cost-of-living pay adjustments, which began during the Great Recession (2007 &#8211; 2009)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Restoring denied-benefit pension and retirement healthcare for all members, which have not been provided to workers hired after 2007<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increasing pensions for currently-retired workers for the first time since 2003<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Solidifying the right to strike over plant closures<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Introducing a \u201cworking family protection program\u201d that would require companies to pay laid-off workers to do community service work if they shut down a plant<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Converting current temporary workers into permanent employees<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Placing stricter limits on the use of temporary workers going forward<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increasing paid vacation time<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>While automakers involved with the negotiations have yet to agree on these demands \u2013 or in the case of Stellantis, outright rejected them \u2013 Fain said that the demands are related to providing better working and living conditions for UAW members.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cUltimately that\u2019s what this contract is about. It&#8217;s about securing a higher quality of life for the working class,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Even a Short Strike Could Cost Automakers Billions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The last time the UAW went on strike was 2019, when contract negotiations between the union and Detroit manufacturers fell apart. This breakdown led to a 40-day strike against GM. The automaker said that the work stoppage <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxbusiness.com\/markets\/gm-earnings-q4-2019-uaw-strike\" rel=\"noopener\">cost the company $3.6 billion<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the strike is agreed to and executed, even a brief stoppage could have a substantial economic impact on manufacturers. According to Anderson Economic Group (AEG), a Michigan-based consulting firm that tracks labor events, a 10-day strike against all of the Detroit Three <a href=\"https:\/\/www.andersoneconomicgroup.com\/10-day-uaw-strike-against-big-three-could-cause-economic-losses-exceeding-5-billion\/\" rel=\"noopener\">could cost the manufacturers $5 billion<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tyler Thiel, vice president at AEG, said that a strike could be more impactful now than it was four years ago due to ongoing supply chain and manufacturing issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cConsumer and dealer losses are typically somewhat insulated in the event of a very short strike,\u201d Theile <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/08\/17\/uaw-strike-cost-aeg-analysis.html\" rel=\"noopener\">told CNBC<\/a>. \u201cHowever, with current inventories hovering around only 55 days, the industry looks different than it did during the last UAW strike.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With automaker inventories still recovering from years-long <a href=\"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/reviews\/news\/semiconductor-shortage-explained\/\">shortages of semiconductors<\/a> and other critical components, a strike presents a greater risk of affecting manufacturers\u2019 abilities to deliver vehicles to dealerships and buyers. As a result, a work stoppage is more likely to impact manufacturers\u2019 bottom line more quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Strike May Not Impact New Car Prices, However<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>There is the possibility that a UAW strike could drive up prices for car buyers. However, historically that hasn\u2019t been the case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Five of the most significant autoworker strikes came in 1970, 1998, 2007, and 2019. When comparing the dates of those strikes to <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/CUUR0000SETA01\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">new car price CPI data from the BLS<\/a>, there was no significant price increase in the six-month periods following any of the stoppages.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The impact of a 2023 strike on end-consumer prices could, however, be different for the same reasons that AEG predicts it could be more substantial for automakers. If a stoppage \u2013 especially a prolonged one \u2013 depletes inventory significantly, the resulting supply shortage could cause prices to increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Strike Could Have Wide-Ranging Effects \u2013 If It Happens<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Ultimately, the exact impact of a strike is difficult to predict, especially before it goes into effect. However, in addition to the direct financial impact, a work stoppage could have several potential side effects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Auto Manufacturers Could Meet UAW Demands<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The ideal outcome, from the UAW perspective, is that the threat of economic losses prompts automakers to concede to some or all of the union\u2019s demands. This would mean a substantial increase in labor-related costs for manufacturers, but the added costs would likely fall short of the impact of a prolonged work stoppage. It would also, of course, mean significant increases in pay and benefits for nearly 150,000 autoworkers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Strike Could Spread To Related Industries<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>During the strike of 2019, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters elected to show solidarity for the UAW by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxbusiness.com\/industrials\/teamsters-refusing-transport-gm-vehicles-solidarity-with-uaw\" rel=\"noopener\">refusing to deliver GM vehicles<\/a>. High-profile strikes are taking or have taken place around the country in recent months, staged by unions for trade groups such as the Writers Guild of America, Screen Actors Guild, and United Parcel Service. With <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/398303\/approval-labor-unions-highest-point-1965.aspx\" rel=\"noopener\">71% of Americans saying they support unions<\/a> in a recent Gallup Poll, the likelihood of other unions such as the Teamsters supporting UAW strikers is presumably high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Automaker Stock Prices Could Drop<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>A strike or even an intensified risk of a strike could also negatively impact stock prices for Ford, GM, and Stellantis. Financial experts are already preparing for the potential fallout. Earlier in August, Garrett Nelson, an analyst with the Center for Financial Research and Analysis (CFRA) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/gm-stock-gets-rating-downgrade-to-sell-on-growing-risk-of-uaw-strike-ee4c700a\" rel=\"noopener\">dropped his rating for GM<\/a> to \u201cstrong sell.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe move to strong sell on the growing risk of a UAW strike, given reports that the company and union remain extremely far apart in labor negotiations,&#8221; said Nelson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nelson said that GM has a more significant earnings risk related to a strike than either Ford or Stellantis. However, if enacted, a strike would likely put stock prices of the other two members of the Detroit Three in jeopardy. In addition, investors may become shy about the impact to revenue and profits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Non-Union Automakers Could Benefit<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/what-the-win-for-uaw-could-mean-for-non-union-automakers\/\">Another potential effect<\/a> \u2013 and one that is perhaps more likely than others \u2013 is that non-union automakers could benefit from a strike against the Detroit Three. While current labor costs for union workplaces averages $64 &#8211; $67 per hour, foreign automakers such as Honda Motor, Toyota Motor, and Hyundai Motor currently pay an average of $55 per hour. Tesla pays even less, at an average of $45 &#8211; $50 per hour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A strike that impacts the Detroit Three\u2019s ability to deliver vehicles and keep prices where they are would not be likely to have a similar effect on foreign automakers and non-union domestic manufacturers. As a result, non-union automakers could potentially offer more attractive price points and more available vehicle supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>At the time of publication, a strike looks likely but not certain. Even if the UAW chapters vote to authorize a strike \u2013 the most likely outcome \u2013 it won\u2019t materialize if the two sides reach an agreement before the September 14 deadline.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If a strike does come to fruition, it could have a profound impact on an industry that has seen a high degree of tumult in recent years. If Fain and messaging from the UAW are to be believed, the union is fully prepared for a strike. But at the same time, automakers have thus far indicated a willingness to fight for their position as well. For now, the Detroit Three, the UAW, and anyone paying attention to the automotive industry will simply have to wait and see.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The auto industry may see its largest strike in years if the United Auto Workers (UAW) \u2013 the largest auto professional union in the country \u2013 does not reach an agreement with the \u201cDetroit Three\u201d automakers Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis by September 14. Union members are set to vote on whether or not to authorize a strike, with leaders asking local offices to report votes by August 24.&nbsp; If authorized, a strike could have a significant direct financial impact [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":435394,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"model":[],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Brenda Woods","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435393"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/174"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=435393"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435393\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/435394"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=435393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=435393"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=435393"},{"taxonomy":"model","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automoblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/model?post=435393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}